The rise and rise of the tablet

Don't write off PCs yet, even as study suggests sales of iPad and its ilk to quadruple this year

by THE GUARDIAN
04:46 AM Apr 13, 2011

SAN FRANCISCO - Sales of tablet computers such as Apple's iPad will more than quadruple from 15 million worldwide in 2010 to 70 million this year and eat into the slowing PC market over the next four years, according to IT research firm Gartner.

The iPad will dominate the nascent tablet market for the foreseeable future, the research firm forecasts, selling about 48 million units this year - a near-fourfold increase on 2010 - to control about 69 per cent of the market.

But rivals continue to chip away at its position. Over the next four years the iPad's share is expected to fall to 47 per cent, in a market selling 294 million units annually, as tablets running Google's Android operating system, HP's WebOS and RIM's PlayBook join the competition.

Notably, Microsoft's Windows is not expected to make any significant impact on the field even by 2015.

The boom in demand for tablets comes during a slowdown of PC sales growth, as consumers opt for tablets and smartphones instead of notebooks and laptops.

"I think a lot of the tablet sales will be additive, not just subtracting from PC sales," said Gartner analyst Carolina Milanesi. "But we do see some displacement on the mobile PC side, definitely for mini-notebooks and low-end laptops. It will probably lengthen the replacement cycle for the PCs that are out there."

PC manufacturer Acer has already indicated that it thinks the era of the netbook is over, saying those devices may see only single-digit sales growth, compared with tablets, which it sees as requiring an "aggressive plan" to gain share.

Analysts have repeatedly downgraded their expectations for the number of PCs to be sold in the face of slowing demand. Last month, Gartner lowered its 2011 forecast to 387.8 million PCs sold, a 10.5-per-cent increase on last year, from the 406.6 million it had suggested at the end of December. The company also cut its forecast for 2012.

However, the rise of the tablet does not mean the death of the PC, according to Gartner analyst Michael Gartenberg. "Even as some today hype the death of the PC, let's be clear: The PC isn't going anywhere any time soon," he said.

Mr Gartenberg describes the traditional PC as the "ultimate Swiss army knife of information", which the iPad is not there to displace.

"The iPad performs some tasks quite well, all the while keeping those tasks simple - and that means an iPad can replace that second or third PC someone was thinking of buying."

Gartner expects 108 million tablet computers to be sold in 2012, almost double this year's prediction, as more tablets running Google's Android operating system are brought to market.

Source: www.todayonline.com